Credit where it is due
This talk was recorded and published by the City of Darebin. MEER links to the official recording rather than reposting it.
Conference Talks archive
ConferenceDarebin Climate Emergency Conference
Beyond Urgent: the science of climate warming as existential risk
David Spratt on high-end climate risk, and why scientific caution has understated the danger.
David Spratt · Research Director
Breakthrough — National Centre for Climate Restoration
Location
Northcote, Melbourne, Australia
Date
September 11, 2018
Duration
32 minutes
Type
Conference presentation
- Climate Risk
- Existential Risk
- Climate Emergency
- Climate Science
- Paris Agreement
- Tipping Points
- Climate Communication
- Climate Policy
MEER conference talks · video archive
The argument
About this talk
Presented at the Darebin Climate Emergency Conference in Melbourne and published by the City of Darebin.
David Spratt argues that climate change is already dangerous, and that the warming projected in the wake of the 2015 Paris Agreement poses a threat to human civilisation unless the pace and scale of action increases radically.
The presentation reviews recent observations, projected warming and impacts on key features of the climate system, and examines how the understatement of climate risk has become embedded in the way scientific research is communicated and translated into policy. It closes by setting out parameters for returning to a safe climate.
Indexed knowledge
Key topics covered
01
Climate Risk
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02
Existential Risk
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03
Climate Emergency
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04
Climate Science
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05
Paris Agreement
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06
Tipping Points
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07
Climate Communication
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08
Climate Policy
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09
Global Heating
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10
Safe Climate
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The signal
Key takeaways
The tail of the risk distribution matters
For an existential threat, planning around the mid-range projection leaves the most consequential outcomes unaddressed.
Scientific reticence shapes policy
Cautious framing in research communication travels into policymaking, where it reads as reassurance rather than uncertainty.
Post-Paris warming is not safe
The pathways implied by current pledges remain far from the conditions in which human societies developed.
A safe climate is a definable goal
Spratt argues for stating the target in physical terms and working back to the pace and scale of action it requires.
Questions worth asking
Frequently asked questions
About the speaker
David Spratt
Research Director · Breakthrough — National Centre for Climate Restoration
David Spratt is research director at Breakthrough — National Centre for Climate Restoration in Melbourne, and co-author of Climate Code Red. His work focuses on climate risk assessment, the systematic understatement of high-end risks in scientific communication and policymaking, and what an emergency-scale response would involve.
About the conference
Darebin Climate Emergency Conference
The Climate Emergency Conference was hosted by Darebin City Council in Melbourne on 11–12 September 2018, bringing councils, researchers and community organisations together to work out what an emergency-scale response to climate change would involve. The recording is published by the City of Darebin on its official YouTube channel; credit and all rights belong to the City of Darebin and the speaker.
Northcote, Melbourne, Australia
Official conference websiteDownloads and further reading
