Thermal Lag
Even if all emissions stopped today, the planet would keep warming for decades because CO₂ persists and oceans release stored heat slowly. This is thermal lag — and it is why surface cooling matters now.
Scientific detail
Thermal lag arises from the multi-decade to multi-century atmospheric lifetime of CO₂ and the large thermal inertia of the ocean, which delays surface temperature equilibration to a given radiative forcing. Committed warming from historical emissions is estimated at several tenths of a degree beyond present. Surface-based cooling can offset part of this committed warming while decarbonization takes effect.
Related terms
Greenhouse Effect
The trapping of heat in Earth's atmosphere by gases such as CO₂, methane and water vapour.
Decarbonization
Reducing CO₂ emissions across energy, transport, industry and agriculture.
Adaptive Mitigation
Interventions that adapt to warming today and reduce warming tomorrow.
Effective Radiative Forcing
The net change in Earth's energy balance caused by a given intervention or driver.